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I built a 2-min quiz that shows you how bad you are at estimating

Details

External ID
47660262
Source
HN
Company
—
Product
I built a 2-min quiz that shows you how bad you are at estimating
Website domain
convexly.app
Launched
April 6, 2026
Cohort
—
Upvotes
20
Upvotes percentile
0.7506426735218509
Tags
—
Fetched at
Sept. 7, 2026, 9:26 p.m.
Updated at
Sept. 7, 2026, 9:26 p.m.

Description

I've gotten to the point in my career where I now make strategic decisions often (hiring, firing, choosing what equipment to go with, etc.), as well as in my personal life where I need to strongly weigh my options for a big purchase or investment. I found a not-so-surprising parallel between the two as these decisions "resolved." Am I making good decisions or am I getting lucky?Did some research, read some books, and realized I should get in the habit of tracking my decision process. That quickly turned into the idea that formed Convexly.The landing page is a 10-question calibration quiz where you assign a confidence level to statements drawn from a rotating pool of 100 (working on making the pool larger) and you get a Brier score back instantly. No signup required, and you can share your scores right away.If you find it interesting, you can create a free account where you can track your decisions with probability estimates, resolve them over time, and get calibration curves that show if you are over/underconfident. From what I've seen so far, users are overconfident when they say they're between 70-90% sure about something.For the math: Beta-PERT distributions for the payoff modeling, Kelly criterion for the position sizing, signal detection theory for separating skill from randomness.On the coding side: FastAPI with NumPy/SciPy, frontend in Next.js and Supabase.So far this has been a solo project of mine. If you want to see all the features use code SHOWHN for 30 days of full access, no credit card required.Curious if anything about your score surprised you after taking the quiz.

Enrichment

Theme
indie hacker passion projects
Vertical
Education
Function
Analytics & BI
Audience
B2C
AI stance
Not AI
Project type
Hobby / open-source project
Normalized one-liner
estimation accuracy quiz
Manually corrected
False

Could you build this?

Yes A 2-minute estimation quiz comparing user confidence intervals or estimates against ground-truth datasets is a basic interactive web form with simple scoring logic.

Discussion

20 comments analyzed.

Competitors mentioned: Metaculus, Thinking Fast and Slow, Superforecasters

Concerns raised: Gap between quiz rapid-feedback calibration and slow-feedback real-world strategic decisions, Calibration math breaks down in team settings with mixed confidence levels, Country-specific questions bias results, Frontend shows AI-generated design patterns suggesting speed prioritized over rigor, Uncited claims about founder overconfidence and scoring ranges

Feature requests: Show calibration curve and question breakdown on-page without email gate, Add regional context to country-specific questions, Return NA for 100% certain outcomes where confidence data is unavailable

Competitors

Other products that read as similar to this one — 152 launches clear the similarity bar, closest 8 shown.

Attention rank: #25 of 153 (itself plus its competitors, highest first — normalized so YC and Product Hunt are compared fairly).

Launched 159 days after the earliest competitor.

Other launches for this product

Same idea, different domain

Nobody's really built a analytics & bi tool for Legal yet.