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polymarket-black-scholes-hft-bot

High-frequency Polymarket trading bot for crypto Up/Down markets, using Black-Scholes and TWAP probability models, Chainlink and multi-exchange price feeds, fee-aware EV, and risk management.

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GITHUB · launched Oct 14, 2026 · 20 upvotes (top 65%)

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Could you build this?

Partial The bot's plumbing (Polymarket API, exchange and Chainlink price feeds, order placement, risk limits) is vibe-codeable, but a profitable version depends on a calibrated probability model and low-latency execution that vibe coding alone won't supply.

What it would actually take: Build a Python or Rust service with websocket ingestion from Chainlink and several exchanges, a fair-value engine implementing Black-Scholes and TWAP probability estimates, fee-aware EV filtering, and a risk/position manager. The hard parts are backtesting the model against historical market and resolution data, tuning it against adverse selection, and co-locating for latency. That requires quant research experience and clean tick-level data.

Competitors

Other products that read as similar to this one : 585 launches clear the similarity bar, closest 8 shown.

Attention rank: #283 of 586 (itself plus its competitors, highest first, normalized so YC and Product Hunt are compared fairly).

Launched 350 days after the earliest competitor.

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