2026 Midterms Tracker blends polls and Kalshi/Poymarket odds
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HN · launched Oct 16, 2026 · 12 upvotes (top 41%)
- Government
- Analytics & BI
- B2C
- Not AI
- Hobby / open-source project
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See all 78 similar launches →Could you build this?
Partial Pulling Kalshi and Polymarket odds is standard API work, but a credible polls blend needs licensed or curated poll data and a defensible weighting methodology.
What it would actually take: The stack is a data pipeline ingesting prediction-market APIs and poll sources, plus a dashboard. The hard piece is a sound polling aggregation model with house effects and pollster quality weighting, which requires polling-methodology and statistics expertise and access to poll data.
Discussion
4 comments analyzed.
Competitors mentioned: Election Betting Odds, FiftyPlusOne, The Economist
Concerns raised: Circular logic of using prediction markets in polling models, Simulation assumptions lack historical calibration
Feature requests: View forecast version excluding prediction market data
Competitors
Other products that read as similar to this one : 78 launches clear the similarity bar, closest 8 shown.
Attention rank: #21 of 79 (itself plus its competitors, highest first, normalized so YC and Product Hunt are compared fairly).
Launched 337 days after the earliest competitor.
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